Hassan Rouhani, President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, announced that his government is optimistic that it can vaccinate all the Iranian people in Phase one, phase two and part of Phase three in the next two months.
This is encouraging, but it needs a massive undertaking by the government and the Iranian health system.
So far, 1.31 million Iranians had received at least one shot of their vaccine (1.3% of the population) and only 232000 people (0.3%) of Iranian fully vaccinated.
According to the vaccination plan of Iran in phase one, which has supposed to be finished by the end of last winter, Iran must vaccinate around 1.3 million people (primarily frontline health workers and high-risk population).
There are 12 million people in phase two and about 19 million people in phase three. All others should be vaccinated in phase 4 after that.
If Rouhani wants to keep his promise and complete the vaccination for phase 1, phase 2 and at least half of phase 3, his government should fully vaccinate about 20 million people in the next 60 days.
Considering that 232000 people already have been vaccinated, the total number drops to 19.7 million remaining people.
1.1 million of them already received their first shot and only need the booster shot.
So in the next 60 days, the government should administrate more than 38 million doses of vaccine to achieve this goal.
This number means that the health system should administrate about 630 thousand shots per day.
The current rate of vaccination is not even close to this number. And the only problem here is not the resources of the vaccine. While Iran had challenges securing doses of vaccines for its population, the distribution of the existing supply of vaccines is another problem. Only half of the current vaccines have been distributed.
Based on all these facts, it seems that President Rouhani’s promise is just it: a promise.
But if he somehow manages to deliver on this promise, the awful situation in Iran could witness a positive and heartwarming change. If not, he will just add to the tsunami of misinformation and broken promises.